Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation
Brian R. MacKenzie, H. E. Markus Meier, Martin Lindegren, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Margit Eero, Thorsten Blenckner, Maciej T. Tomczak and Susa Niiranen
AMBIO, Volume 41, Number 6 (2012), 626-636, DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks.

Environmental forcings influence recruitment of sprat
Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973–2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years.

Relationships between biomass and climate changes
The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

September 2012
Share this page:

Web editor: Marmar Nekoro

Updated: 2012-09-06
Baltic Nest Institute Sweden
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University
SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden, +46-8-16 37 18
Baltic Nest Institute Denmark
Aarhus University, Fredriksborgsvej 399
DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark, +45 4630 1200
Baltic Nest Institute Finland
Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140
FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland, + 358 20 610 123