An increased understanding of the role of external forcing vs. internal feedbacks (WP 1 and WP 2) will provide the background information for WP 3.
We will address:
a) the potential multiple effects of remedial action designed to meet existing eutrophication and fishery targets, and
b) the potential risk that actions will be ineffective due to internal feed back mechanisms (identified in WP2).
Aim of the WP
In this WP, the scientific models will be used to conduct scenario analysis of management options and investigate potential conflict between sectors:
- What are the ecological implications of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP 2007)? Can we get a high sustainable fish yield (for multiple stocks) and simultaneously decrease eutrophication according to the nutrient reduction targets?
- What are potential ecological implications of a continued increase of the seal populations if primary production is simultaneously reduced?
- Which are the potential cascading effects on a further increase of the cod stock on primary production?
Bottom-up vs. top down and cascading food web effects will be investigated, uncertainties and complexity will be described in relation to various management options.
Existing targets in different sectors (and at national/regional levels) will be cataloged and their potential interaction will be modelled and described. Potential conflicts and mutually supporting targets (e.g. between Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) targets and other targets) at the sub-basin level will be qualitatively addressed.
The different scenarios will be evaluated continuously together with relevant stakeholders, including HELCOM Secretariat and Heads of Delegations, Senior staff at the European Commission and national representatives, or possibly Council of Ministers (Fisheries and Environment), implementing agencies responsible for the BSAP, the Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council for Fisheries (Baltic Sea RAC), Baltic Farmers Federation, the Fisheries/Environment Forum for the Baltic Sea organized by HELCOM, Water Directors and those responsible for the development of indicators and targets within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC).
Stakeholder dialogues will be organized annually around specific themes identified, e.g. “Climate induced regime shifts — implications for reference levels for commercial fish stocks" or “BSAP nutrient reductions — potential implications on the food web".
The dialogue will thus aim to discuss and evaluate
a) the relative role of external forcing and internal feedbacks,
b) the spill-over effects between sectoral targets and actions, and
c) the implications of regime shifts for management.
The WP will also derive useful information about the “real" response time possible within current management framework (WP 1 and WP 2 for a theoretical “optimal" type of response resulting from early warning signals) and provide background for the forward looking WP 4.
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- Boonstra, W.J. 2011. Hobbes’ erfenis [Hobbes’ legacy]. Review essay. Sociologie 7 (2): 183-189.
- Boonstra, W.J. & Pham Thi Hong Nhung. 2012. The ghosts of fisheries management. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research 4 (1): 1-25.
- Boonstra, W.J. & S.M. Joosse. 2013. The social dynamics of degrowth. Environmental Values 22 (2): 171-189.
- Boonstra, W.J. & F.W. de Boer. 2013. The historical dynamics of social-ecological traps. AMBIO. DOI 10.1007/s13280-013-0419-1.
A list of additional publications is available here