WP 2 - Modelling Inertia

In this WP the aim is not to develop models as they already exist (the NEST model system), but to analyze the model outputs in relation to

a) the inertia of the system (as a measure of resilience) and

b) the same early warning indicators mentioned in WP1.

The state-of-the-art inertia approach provides a measure of how fast the system will react to a change for example in management.

Aim of the WP
Here we explore in detail the inertia and stability of three major sub-systems of the Baltic Sea that have undergone documented radical shifts in the past, i.e. the catchment (river loads of nutrients and carbon), the deep water realm of the Baltic Sea (rapid spreading of dead zones) and marine food web structure (collapsing fish stocks).

Resilience and non-linearities
External forcing (climate change and anthropogenic impacts) vs. internal feedbacks and pools in all three subsystems may explain the non-linear responses and abrupt changes within these subsystems of the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

We may express the inertia of the watersheds and the deep water realm as the capacity to sequester external nutrient loads. We will address changes in resilience by simulating the response of nutrient leakage, retention and nutrient fluxes as a function of external loading.

The resilience of the food web can be described by the analysis of the strength of species interactions and their feedbacks buffering external disturbances.

This WP investigates potential regime shifts and thresholds in various subsystems of the Baltic Sea, i.e. the catchment generating nutrient loads, the marine basins with their temporal and spatial nutrient and oxygen regimes in the water and in the sediments, and the food web as a responsive system to bottom up (salinity, temperature, nutrients, oxygen) and top down (fishery, seabird and seal predation) effects.


Publications


A list of additional publications is available here

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Web editor: Marmar Nekoro

Updated: 2016-03-07
Baltic Nest Institute Sweden
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University
SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden, +46-8-16 37 18
Baltic Nest Institute Denmark
Aarhus University, Fredriksborgsvej 399
DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark, +45 4630 1200
Baltic Nest Institute Finland
Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140
FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland, + 358 20 610 123