Using a multi-model system tool to understand potential consequences of management measures
Multi-model system toolResearchers from BNI Sweden, together with colleagues from six additional Baltic Sea countries present results which summarizes selected research highlights of the BONUS project ECOSUPPORT - Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making.
By developing a multi-model system tool to support decision making, the researchers try to understand the potential consequences of different management measures on the Baltic Sea ecosystem.
Simulating past and future climate variations and eutrophication
The multi-model system tool was used to produce scenario simulations of the whole marine ecosystem. The models simulated past climate variations and eutrophication since 1850. Using IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios, effects of future climate changes were also investigated. The study covers the period 1850 - 2098.
Future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem
Results from the ensemble modeling and the study show that future climate change may have considerable impacts on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21 century, water temperature will be higher, and salinity and oxygen concentrations will be lower than any values since 1850. These changes will affect the marine food web, e.g. affecting cod biomass negatively.
Relevance for decision makers and the Baltic Sea Action Plan
The results of the study are highly relevant for decision makers, providing a state of the art, scientific basis for marine management and policy support.
The effects and results presented need to be taken into consideration in management plans such as the Baltic Sea Action Plan adopted by HELCOM and its Member States, as they indicate that nutrient load reductions and a sustainable fishery are even more important in the future compared to present climate change.
The study was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on July 9, read more about it and download it here.
Read more about the visualizations and future scenarios developed by ECOSUPPORT and available through Google Earth here